1. Intro

The gist of it: Every factor, item, attribute, trend, statistic, and indicator in this system has been issued a numeric value.  Every category, sub category, and sub filed is rated on a scale, based on its importance.  The scales are completely different for each and every factor in the system – so let’s not go there right now, ok?  The number values for all of the “bet factors” I use are lined up with the two teams playing in a given football game.  These two teams together are actually seen as one “team factor” in my system. 

i.e. One team might have a higher rating in “playing in primetime on Sunday” while the other might have a high score in “ability to win revenge games on the road.”  Remember, these two “bet factors” have completely different numeric scales – all of the bet factors do in fact.

2. Types of factors

Once the point system for teams is lined up (as described above), we then look at bet factors for other “team factors,” including individual players, coaches, sides of the ball, etc.  These factors are vast, and range from similar, alike, and the complete antithesis of other team factors.

Basically, this system looks at Individual Players, Individual Positions, Head Coaches, Coordinators, Defenses, Offenses, Special Team Formations etc…all the way up to the “Team Level.”  The previous list falls into a category known as “team factors.”  Every one of the above categories (team factors) has its own unique list of “bet factors” (sample list at bottom).  Each bet factor, for each category, has its own “sub-factors” list.  Each sub-factor has its own “numeric rating scale”, and, a weight value for each of these scales based on the “past game interval” stats. 

When all values are added up for a set of “sub-factors,” we get the total value of a specific “bet factor”.  When this bet factor’s values are added, we come to one “team factor” total.  When all “team factor” totals are added and weighed, we come to a projected winner – point spread included.

3. Breaking down the factors

 Bet factors are broken down into sub-factors, which are in turn rated on their respected unique scales.  The way they are rated, and the diversity of their unique scales, is based on past NFL games – or “the past games limit”.  As with everything in the system, for each category and bet factor, the past games limit is different.

Past Games Limit: The amount of years we look back when retrieving statistics for an individual bet factor, which is made up of several researched sub-factors.  We may also look back to obtain a past games limit for some sub-factors.

i.e. When looking at a particular QB’s propensity to win road games below 40 degrees, we might review 3 years of past NFL statistics, feeling that this is enough information to accurately depict how he will perform in a cold environment.  When looking at a Head Coaches’ ability to win primetime games, we might look back 5 years into the records (or an entire career) to get an understanding of how he will most likely perform.  It all depends on the actual “past games limit” of the bet factor/sub-factors.

The past games limit is already set in stone for every factor, and was brought about by extensive research.  The past games limit is like a guide, a guide that shows me how far back to look when obtaining stats on a certain factor.  After reviewing years of NFL stats and trends, one realizes that when interpreting something such as injury, we may only have to go back two years to provide an accurate depiction of a player’s propensity to re-injure that area.  On the other hand, when we see that a particular player’s performance directly following  a “week off” has been poor, we have to look back 10+ years to review a career record of Wins/Losses – all following one week off.  Similarly, when looking at career passing or kicking stats, rookie years hold less weight in the overall averages than more recent years, as true rookies are statistically more prone to struggle in these areas.  Here are two short examples of the different levels in my system:

Team Factor:              Individual Player – QB                                                        Bet Factor:                  Ability to Run for Yardage                                                 Past Games Limit:      2 years                                                           Sub-factors:                  Indoors, Outdoors, Natural Surface, Artificial Surface, QB Speed, QB Size, Defense Speed, Defense Size, Defense Against Rush, Defensive Line Against Rush, etc, etc, etc.

Team Factor:              Head Coach                                                                          Bet Factor:                 Ability to win against non-division opponents                    Past Game Limit:       5 years (or career)                                          Sub-factors:                  Non-Division Wins & Losses, Wins & Loses to…4-3 Defenses, Nickel Defenses, West Coast Offenses, Large Offensive Lines, Fast Defensive Secondaries…and the list goes on and on until everything you can think of is analyzed.

4. Factor Scales

Once we have ratings for all of the bet factors/sub-factors (all sub-factor values added together = the total value for each bet factor), on a respective scale, we can use the “past games limit” in conjunction with the necessary statistics to assign each bet factor a numeric value.  Bet factors are added together, and put against each other as “team factors,” which ultimately produce their own numeric value(s) and a winner/loser in the end.  Bet factor numeric totals are based on the addition of all respected sub-factor values.  Sub-factor maximum values, in turn, are added and must equal the maximum of their parent bet factor’s value.  Here is a plain example of how it works with a mere 1 team factor, 2 bet factors, and 6 sub-factors (3 for each bet factor):

In the above example, you see a game between Dallas and Philadelphia.  PLEASE UNDERSTAND that the numbers & scales used above were simply made up for this example.  Also, please realize that a “bet factor” such as “TDs” would probably have 15+ “sub-factors” with different scales in the real life system (not a mere three as pictured above).  With that said, we took the one “team factor” and the two “bet factors” needed for this example (127 in real system).  We analyzed the bet factors numeric values based on past game intervals to determine how important they were.  We then used statistics to analyze how important each “sub-factor” was to its respected “bet factor”.  When all factors are added in the end, it is predicted that Philly will win the game overt Dallas.  Of course, this example doesn’t show you how we interpret point spreads…but worry not, it is worked into the system and is probably the most amazing part of it.  The point spread system itself had assigned numeric valued for each “bet factor” so that it is consistent with not only the betting system, but also the Las Vegas line.

Hopefully the previous example was easy to understand.  Let us realize after all though, that the example only included (1) team factor, (2) bet factors, (6) sub factors, (4) past games limits, (8) numeric scales.  The actual 127-Point PKF Pro Football Betting System, is comprised of over 15 team factors (whole team, coach, QB,…etc), and 127 bet factors (examples at bottom of page), which you can imagine brings on a huge amount of sub-factors, and numeric scales research - all based on past game limits and extensive statistic research.  In essence, the program is stacked.  It overlooks nothing…nothing you could ever imagine.  It takes stats, abilities, personalities, anomalies, foresee ability, trends, emotion, streaks, and more to a whole new level in handicapping.

5. Summary: Definitions & Explanations

Team Factors: Things like Team, Head Coach, Quarterback, Kicker, etc.  Team Factor values are found by adding all “bet factor” values in the umbrella under them.  In the end, a summation of all team factor values will predict a system favorite between two football teams.

QB’s Score + Coach’s Score + LB’s Score + Defense’s Score + Sp. Teams’ Score and so on… =  Total score for each Football Team, which is then compared with the opposing football team’s score.

Past Games Limit: Am amount of time (usually years) that we must looks back to get a good understanding of certain statistics, and why they predict what they predict.  These values are different for every “bet factor”.  The values are come upon by analyzing all “bet factors” and “sub-factors” in order to get an assumption of what is most important in a football game.  Past Games have already been decided for the 2006 season, but can change at any time.

Example: In looking back and realizing that passer rating is more important over the years than punt yardage(with regards to winning), we decide to give passer rating 4 years, and punt yardage 1 year.  In other words, when doing our research on passer rating, we’ll look back at stats from 4 years ago until the present.  For punt yardage, we’ll only look back one year (last year’s stats).  With these stats, we give numeric values to bet factors/sub-factors.

Bet Factors:  Broad, yet very important factors, such as Touchdowns, Passing Yards, Defensive Interceptions, Penalty Yards, etc.  Each of these broad factors is composed of several smaller factors which add up to equal one “bet factor.”  The value of all of a bet factor’s “sub-factors” added together equals the value the “bet factor” holds.  All bet factors within a “team factor” added together equal the total score for that team factor.

Bet Factor = RB Rush Attempts (12 total)

Sub-factors= RB Sweeps (3), RB dives (5), Pitches(2), Draws (2)   

Above, you can see that all sub-factors have numeric values.  These values added up all equal the parent bet factor’s total value within a given team factor.  This does not indicate the number of rush attempts, but rather rates the different types of runs by their importance as related to the rush offense being rated.

Sub-factors:  Very specific factors, which in large groups, can make up one “bet factor”.  All numerical values of the sub-factors are added together to create a maximum value for the “bet factor”.

Bet Factor = RB Rushing Attempts (12 total)

Sub-factors= RB Sweeps (3), RB dives (5), Pitches(2), Draws (2)   

Above, the sub-factors have different ranges of points they are awarded based on strengths and weaknesses.  “RB Sweeps” is 1-3, as indicated by the (3) maximum.  If a running back is known as a great man on the outside, he may be awarded a 3.  If he’s slow, he may be given a 1 or 2.  When you do this for all sub-factors under a bet factor, and add everything up, you get a bet factor value.  Here, if a running back received a 2,3,1,& 2 as scores in the above four “sub-factors,” the total “bet factor” score would be 8/12 possible points.

6.  Examples of Bet Factors (not broken into sub-factors):